The Rising Tide: Global Obesity Trends from 1990 to 2050

Dr Hitesh Punyani and Dr Sanjay Kalra

“Obesity is accelerating into one of the greatest public health challenges of the century. This study analyzed global, regional, and national data from 1990 to 2021 and forecasted trends to 2050, revealing steep rises—especially in Asia and Africa. Recognizing obesity as a preventable global threat demands stronger, long-term strategies for real impact.”

Obesity and overweight and obesity are among the major health challenges worldwide requiring careful analysis to guide effective policy responses.

A study published in The Lancet in 2025 used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study to examine trends in adult overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021 and to project future patterns through 2050.

Researchers analyzed data from 1350 data sources across 204 countries, focusing on adults aged 25 years and older. They combined both measured and self-reported data, making adjustments to correct for any reporting bias. They used an advanced statistical method called spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to ensure the data were consistent and comparable across different regions.

The findings showed a continuous global rise in overweight and obesity, affecting 1 billion men and 1.11 billion women in 2021. China had the largest number of affected adults (402 million), followed by India and the United States. The highest prevalence rates were observed in Oceania and North Africa, where up to 80% of adults were overweight or obese. Further, between 1990 and 2021, global obesity rates increased by 155.1% in men and 104.9% in women. By 2050, an estimated 3.8 billion adults may be affected, with the steepest rise projected in sub-Saharan Africa.

The findings highlight an urgent need for coordinated global and national efforts to reduce obesity and its growing disease burden.

(Source: GBD 2021 Adult BMI Collaborators. Global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet. 2025 Mar 8;405(10481):813–838.)